Bega Cheese Limited Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

(ASX:BGA) last week reported its latest half-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. The result was positive overall – although revenues of AU$1.7b were in line with what the analysts predicted, surprised by delivering a statutory profit of AU$0.024 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Bega Cheese are now predicting revenues of AU$3.34b in 2023. If met, this would reflect a modest 5.2% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 663% to AU$0.088. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$3.13b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.14 in 2023. While next year’s revenue estimates increased, there was also a large cut to EPS expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view of these results.

There’s been no major changes to the price target of AU$3.98, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast sales and lower earnings won’t result in a meaningful change to the business’ valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Bega Cheese, with the most valuing it at AU$5.20 and the most bearish at AU$3.15 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but…


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